Everything Is Obvious By Duncan J. Watts. Normally, this book will cost you $12.99, Here you can download thousands of books in PDF file format for free without needing the extra spent money. Click the download button above or alternative link below to download thousands of books in PDF file format for free. Access requires free registration.
By understanding how and when common sense fails, we can improve our understanding of the present and better plan for the future.
Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.
It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to be driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.
Watts' argument has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.